Russia and Georgia clashing over the georgian break-away region of Abkhasia and South-Ossetia has now reached an unprecedented ignition-level, with evacuated villages and army musters. The conflict kept certain volatility in Abkhazia for months and has now extended to South Ossetia.
Abkhazia has officially closed its borders to Georgian peace-keepers, while the territory is targeted by vicious blastings of bombs on civilians in an escalation that is blamed on Georgia.
As to South-Ossetia, Russian army has just made a military drill in Northern Caucasus (Chechnya, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachayevo-Circassia) the S.Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, is attacked by mortar shots, allegedly launched by Georgian army. Some georgian border-towns had the youth evacuated due to security reasons, which was deemed by South-Ossetian authorities as a patent preparation to invasion.
Georgian leaders suggested in July 4th a partition of the Abkhaz disputed territory, aknowledging russian influence over a large portion but securing a few key-locations. Yet the recent President Medvedev call to attain to 1994 ceasefire dispositions (a Split russo-georgian safeguarding while demanding for a demilitarization of certain areas) maintained Abkhazia integrity. This opening is also highly regarded as another diplomatic move to present the international community with a fait-accompli: a split rule of the land, with Russian military effectively patrolling the roads. A possibility that grows factual as Russia is initiating two “Missions” in the territories (the opening is due for July 9th) .
The actors of this confrontation are various and variously embedded one another. As Russia is being blamed to help Abkhazians and South Ossetians secede, Georgia is part of the US strategy for a new regime change in CIS countries. CIS countries have break away from the Soviet Union and experienced a high level of hostility in the aftermath of secessions due to an over-secession syndrom. The whole area did not have a clear nation composition as encountered in Eastern Europe, but presents a much more conflictual potential than the Balkans itself. However we should distinguish Central Asia countries, where nationalism is embedded in the bigger sense of “Turkishness” and is more conceivable as a clan struggle (sole exception is the Tadjiki-Uzbeki unrest), the Caucasus is a much more fragmented and delimited area, with no common identity nor self-rule experience.
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1 comment:
Least we forget, that Georgia attempted the full extermination of its minorities in Abkhazia and S.Ossessia between 1991 and 1993 and lost, as well as limited extermination or cleansing of it's Ajarian, Russian, German and Armenian minorities. Furthermore, Georgia is under the rule of a megalomaniac who has removed (read killed) any opposition, both outside his party and inside his party (as in his former VP). His economy is solely subsidized by Washington and without it would wither away, while one in five Georgians more than happily lives in Russia.
Georgia and the West once more on the March in the Caucuses
Georgia, NATO and the Next Caucacus War
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