Enter Saddamkashvili

A brief blog-roll and reading throughout the web prompt me to some off-the-cuff comments.

- Georgia conduct was dishonest in granting a ceasefire and suddenly strike in South Ossetia. I find the calculation of blur the attack with the Olympiads opening particularly disturbing, as the Olympiads were meant since their beginnings as a ceasefire and temprary peace between the polis of the greek world, from Sicily to the Colchis (present day Georgia-Abkhazia). It was considered an act of Impiety to wage a war in those times.

- The media talk incessantly of asymmetric war between Georgia (4.5 Mio People) and Russia (142 Mio). I shall rectify: Georgia (4 Mio people) and South Ossetia (70.000).


- Georgia´s president, Mr. Saakashvili, reportedly made a priority of his mandate to re-consolidate Georgian borders and sovereignty, ahead of any other plan to better off the country. My opinion: this re-consolidation is aimed at assuring a safe passage through Georgia of the BTC (Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan pipeline). It is a clearing of hurdles rather than a pacification, with absolutely no carrot attitude towards South-Ossetia, perhaps because there is simply any...

- Quoting Winthrop360 post: "The famous Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was blown up in Turkey earlier this week and its operator, BP, shut it down for repairs. Coincidentally, the Georgian section of the pipeline is filled with oil - oil which basically has nowhere to go (how convenient). I think, with a good deal of certainty, that Georgia will tap BTC oil in Georgian territory, citing an "emergency."" I quite agree, Georgia is basically segmenting itself from all the region, defying irresponsably Azerbaijan, Russia and allies (SCO, CSTO, CIS) with its pro-US stance.

- Which leads me to the conclusion: given the strong Georgian opposition rallies (and the subsequent crackdown) the whole responsability is of Mr. Saakashvili behaviour. A quick screening of the European press show the dissociation of EU states from such a war-mongering interlocutor. Saakashvili in this turn seems to me very much the early Saddam, drummed up to a war to Iran no matter what, under his US patron´s distrustful and half-hearted glance.

I would try to explore better the US tactic of proxy wars in contests of scarce operativity and rescue capability. The extent of US proclivity to such war mongering instead of diplomacy and negotiation needs some intelligence.

Scenarios for Georgia's South Ossetia crisis

(Image source: Wikipedia)

(Reuters) - Fighting raged in and around the capital of Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region on Friday as Georgian troops, backed by tanks and warplanes, pounded separatist forces in a bid to re-take control of the territory.

The following are possible scenarios:

* Georgia, whose army and reservists total around 18,000 soldiers, swiftly completes its assault on breakaway South Ossetia before Russia can mobilize a major military response.

A Georgian victory could spark an exodus of non-Georgians to Russia. The majority of the breakaway region's roughly 70,000 population feel close to Russia and are ethnically distinct from Georgians.

Should Georgian troops quickly establish control over the territory it could prove more difficult for the Russians, diplomatically, to seize back control of the province by sending in its own forces.

* Failure by Georgia to quickly establish full control over South Ossetia could allow Russia, which has a peacekeeping mandate in the region, time to launch a counter-offensive, arguing that it needs to protect its own peacekeeping forces as well as civilians, most of whom have Russian passports.

Georgian officials say Russian armor is already pouring into the region from across the border. Hundreds of volunteers from Russia and another Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, were reported to be making their way to South Ossetia.

* If Georgian troops fail to retake South Ossetia, Tbilisi could be vulnerable to political and diplomatic pressure from the United States and Europe to halt its offensive. The European Union is wary of antagonizing Russia, one of its main sources of energy. Some European members of NATO, also wary of President Mikheil Saakashvili's record in clamping down on opponents, have resisted moves to put Georgia on a fast track to membership. Russia fiercely opposes NATO membership for its former Soviet satellite.

* Outright defeat for Georgian forces, with a retreat to pre-conflict positions, would be a humiliation for Saakashvili. He has made it a priority to win back control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another rebel region on the Black Sea. Defeat could also boost his domestic opponents and raise doubts about Georgia's pro-market reforms and drive to align itself more closely with the West.

14 hours of Conflict - How is Georgian blitzkrieg faring?

Sources are Regnum.ru and RIAN

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

01:07 08/08/2008

Direct military action is taking place near the capital of South Ossetia between Georgian and Ossetian troops.

President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity announced that South Ossetian troops had been built up to contain Georgian units. “A violent fighting is taking place."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

01:47 08/08/2008

The storm of the South Ossetian caputal is taking place in all directions, reports the website of the South Ossetian Information Committee. [...]

Georgian artillery troops are firing at governmental and residential buildings in central Tskhinvali. [...]

Earlier, Georgia confirmed its intention to solve the Georgian-Ossetian conflict by force. In particular, Commander of Peacekeeping Operation of the Georgian Armed Forces Mamuka Kurashvili announced that the Georgian side “launched an operation to bring constitutional order to Tskhinvali area.” At the present moment, Georgian troops continue firing from howitzers, mortars, Grad multiple launch rocket systems and large-calibre artillery.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

02:02 08/08/2008

A block of governmental offices in central Tskhinvali has been completely destroyed. The city is on fire, reports a REGNUM correspondent from the site. Artillery shelling of the South Ossetian capital by Georgian troops has continued.

As Assistant Commander of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces Vladimir Ivanov said, positions of Russian peacekeeprs in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone has not been subjected to fire yet. “There has been no direct firing at peacekeepers' posts from the Georgian side. The peacekeepers continue fulfilling their task of monitoring the developments in the conflict zone,” he noted

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11.55

MOSCOW, August 8 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will chair an emergency meeting of the national Security Council in the next few hours to discuss the situation in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, the president's spokesperson said on Friday.

Georgia launched a full-scale attack on its breakaway republic of S. Ossetia overnight, using tanks, combat aircraft, heavy artillery and infantry. Georgia said it had captured most of its breakaway republic and called on the separatist authorities to surrender.

"The Security Council will consider as soon as possible proposals to settle the situation in the region," Natalia Timakova said.

South Ossetia said at least 15 civilians had been killed so far and Russian peacekeepers said Georgia had shelled their positions, wounding several Russian servicemen.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who is currently in Beijing, warned that Georgian aggression against its breakaway region will provoke a "response".

"The situation is very sad. It raises concerns and will certainly incur a response," Putin said.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin called on the UN Security Council to intervene to stop violence in the region, but the council failed on Friday to reach an agreement on a Russian-drafted statement.

Several Russian lawmakers on Friday called for military action against Tbilisi in response to Georgia's aggression.

"Russia must interfere in the conflict to stop the violence," influential MP Konstantin Zatulin said. "Russia must consider a military operation because our peacekeeping contingent will not be enough to ensure peace in the region."

State Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov said Russia would protect its citizens in South Ossetia. Many residents of the self-proclaimed republic hold Russian citizenship.

South Ossetia and another Georgian breakaway republic, Abkhazia, broke away from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, gaining de facto independence after bloody conflicts with Tbilisi.

Georgia has pledged to bring the two tiny republics back under central control and has accused Russia of trying to annex the regions.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14:35 08/08/2008

"The Georgian authorities have unleashed a dirty war," the ministry said on its website, echoing statements from Russian officials and lawmakers who have condemned the ongoing Georgian ground and air offensive, which has killed several people including Russian peacekeepers.

"Bloodshed in South Ossetia will be on their conscience. We will protect our peacekeepers and citizens of the Russian Federation," the ministry said.

Georgia launched a major offensive overnight in its breakaway republic, where many people hold Russian passports, using tanks, combat aircraft, heavy artillery and infantry. Georgia says it has captured most of the region, and has called on the separatist authorities to surrender.

South Ossetia earlier said at least 15 civilians had been killed, and Russian peacekeepers said Georgia had shelled their positions, killing and wounding several Russian servicemen in the regional capital, Tskhinvali.

Georgia's pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, announced a full mobilization in the country. He also accused Russia of bombing Georgian villages, a claim Moscow swiftly rejected.

NATO, the European Union and the United States, a key ally of Georgia, all issued statements urging the sides to bring an end to the conflict.

Georgia's Rustavi-2 television said government troops had shot down a Russian military plane over Georgian airspace on Friday. The channel said several Russian planes had earlier dropped bombs on the town of Gori, to the south of South Ossetia.

Russia's Foreign Ministry dismissed the report as "mere ravings, another vile provocation by the Georgian authorities." The Defense Ministry called the report an "information provocation," and said no Russian aircraft had been downed.

South Ossetia - War alright

Goergia and South Ossetia have begun a full scale war.
As to 12.56 of August 8th, here is the status quo.

(RIA Novosti) - Georgia said on Friday it had seized control over almost all towns and villages in its breakaway republic of South Ossetia, following a major ground and air offensive.

The Georgian military attacked South Ossetia's capital of Tskhinvali early in the morning with tanks, heavy artillery and infantry, sparking condemnation from Russia, which has warned of "emergency measures" to end the conflict. South Ossetia earlier said 15 people had been killed in the attacks, several buildings were on fire in the city center, and the local parliament building had burned down

Georgian Reunification Minister Temur Yakobashvili said the military was continuing its offensive in Tskhinvali. However, he denied reports that Georgian planes had been bombing the city.

"There is no bombing of Tskhinvali. Street battles are continuing in the city, involving our soldiers. We do not plan to bomb our own servicemen in Tskhinvali," he told a video linkup hosted by RIA Novosti.

The rebel administration had said Georgian Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes had bombed the South Ossetian village of Kvernet as well as a humanitarian aid convoy.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili gave a starkly contrasting version of events, saying Georgia had "liberated" South Ossetia from separatists, and that Russia was bombing Georgian villages.

"Most of South Ossetia's territory has been liberated and is now controlled by Georgia... I call on Russia to stop bombarding peaceful Georgian towns," he said in a televised address to the nation.

The Georgian offensive came the morning after Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili declared a unilateral ceasefire, and after the UN Security Council gathered for an emergency meeting.

Georgian PM Lado Gurgenidze said that Georgia had launched the attack on Tskhinvali after South Ossetian separatists had broken the ceasefire and attacked Georgian villages.

Peacekeeping commanders in South Ossetia said the Georgian military had shelled their headquarters in Tskhinvali, killing and injuring several Russian peacekeepers and destroying several barracks.

Georgia's Interior Ministry had earlier claimed that South Ossetian separatists were planning to attack Russian peacekeepers in order to bring Russia into the conflict.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, currently on a visit to Beijing for the start of the Olympics, warned that Georgia's actions would meet a "response."

He said he had discussed the issue with U.S. President George W. Bush and top Chinese officials, who had agreed that full-scale war must be prevented.

At the Security Council session, Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin called on the council to intervene to stop violence in the region.

The Kremlin also held emergency talks on the conflict, and said it was considering urgent measures to end the attack on South Ossetia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev "is heading a meeting to discuss a series of urgent measures to stop the violence in South Ossetia, to protect the civilian population and Russian citizens in the conflict zone," the Kremlin press service said. Many residents of South Ossetia hold Russian citizenship.

Georgian Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze said Georgia would continue its military operation until peace was established.

"The goal of Georgia's actions in the conflict zone is to establish peace in the region. And we will not stop until we have attained this goal," he said. (VIDEO)

He said the country would offer an amnesty to South Ossetia's leaders, and provide over $35 million in reconstruction aid for the province after the establishment of Georgian control.

GAZPROM’S EUROPEAN EXPANSION DILEMMA

Source : Eurasia Daily Monitor

Russian planners have consistently underestimated the rapid growth of gas consumption within Russia and the EU’s newly found ability to find alternative sources. A 2005 study prepared by Gazprom’s Research Institute for the Economics of the Gas Industry, NIIGazekonomika, revealed in a 2005 report that domestic consumption of natural gas was increasing at a faster pace than projected in Russia's Energy Strategy, the official guidelines for the energy sector adopted in May 2003. NIIGazekonomika found that earlier projections of Russian domestic consumption of gas were based on unreliable Soviet era data and were found to be off the mark by tens of billions of cubic meters (bcm). Domestic consumption, they claimed, was rapidly growing due to a number of factors: (1) The low price of gas for domestic consumers, which has been encouraging consumption; (2) The energy intensive nature of Russian industry; (3) Gazprom’s monopoly of the Russian pipeline system; by trying to maintain this monopoly, Gazprom has discriminated against independent producers of gas by limiting their access to the system (this applies mostly to oil companies, which are forced to flair off billions of cubic meters of associated gas); (4) Gazprom’s reluctance to investment in new gas fields that would replace the four currently producing fields, all of which are facing severe depletion rates; and (5) Russia’s pressing need to rely on the sale of relatively small quantities of Central Asian gas to Europe (10 bcm) in order to meet domestic needs and new export commitments. This quantity is bound to increase dramatically in the next few years.

On July 7 the Russian Daily Kommersant reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin had ordered Gazprom and the Federal Antimonopoly Service to expedite independent Russian gas producers’ access to Gazprom’s gas pipeline system. Sechin, widely regarded as the head of the siloviki or power clan in Russia, is also the chairman of the board of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company. Rosneft produces some 6.6 bcm of associated gas. Other independent gas producers (Novatek produces 15 bcm, Lukoil and Surgutneftegas seven bcm each, and TNK-BP 4.9 bcm) account for a combined total of 14-16 percent of all Russian gas production. All have faced obstacles from Gazprom in selling their gas, and many are flaring it off. These companies are currently being offered $46 per 1,000 cubic meters by Gazprom for their gas, while the price on the Russian market is $71 per 1,000. At the same time, Gazprom sells gas for an average price of $400 per 1,000 cubic meters in Europe. Adding to the current uncertainty, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s trip to Central Asian gas producing countries last month did not result in any firm commitments, only vague agreements in principle from the leaders of those countries to come to Russia’s rescue. Those countries have discovered new markets in China and India and are complicating Moscow’s ambitious plans in Europe".

Snub for Iran eases nuclear crisis

By M K Bhadrakumar (excerpts)

The unnamed Russian diplomat said the SCO foreign ministers at a meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, a week later would decide on whether to lift a moratorium on bringing in new states. “The moratorium has lasted for two years. We have now decided to consider the possibility of the SCO’s enlargement,” he said. It appeared that weathering US opposition, Moscow was pushing Iran’s pending request for SCO membership. Founded in 2001, the SCO currently comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran has observer status.

However, in the events, following the meeting in Dushanbe on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov revealed that the foreign ministers did not discuss the enlargement of the SCO, while finalizing the agenda of the organization’s summit meeting on August 28, and that Iran wouldn’t be able to get the status of an associate member.

[ . . . ]

Since such issues are invariably decided within the SCO on the basis of a consensus between Russia and China, it stands to reason that either Russia didn’t press Iran’s membership case or China disfavored the idea. On balance, it seems to be a combination of both. Conceivably, Moscow didn’t press after informally ascertaining Beijing’s lukewarm attitude. Tajikistan, which hosts the SCO summit in August, has openly favored Iran’s membership. If the two Big Brothers had given the green signal, Tajikistan would have asked Iran to come in from the cold. No doubt, Tehran, which openly canvassed for SCO membership, has suffered a diplomatic setback.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The possibility of a moratorium lifting in Dushanbe SCO meeting was not solely meant for the Iranian case. The case is for countries that inevitably fall in the group interests and wish to have a common table to discuss problems. It is the case for Mongolia, that after the regime-change attempt will be all too poised to formalize a SCO membership. It may be also a vested invitation to Turkmenistan, to consider an application as observer.

India questions IPI project viability

LONDON, July 28 (IranMania) - The Indian government casts doubts on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, saying its economic viability has to be studied, PressTV reported.

"We have to see the economic viability of the pipeline, given the extra costs of insurance, since the pipeline will pass through areas that are not stable," said Indian Prime Minister's special envoy, Shyam Saran, in New Delhi on Saturday.

His remarks come about 10 days after the Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari and his Indian counterpart Murli Deora agreed in an energy conference in Madrid to finalize the IPI project deal by August.

Iran has addressed India's concern on the security of the pipeline passing through Pakistan by agreeing to move the delivery point to India-Pakistan border.

"We are discussing this with Iran and Pakistan now," Saran said. "If the costs are too high and we're locked into an agreement for the next 50 years, then we have a problem."

The three countries are scheduled to meet in Tehran in late July to discuss the remaining issues in the multi-billion-dollar project, including the key issue of price which has remained unsolved between Iran and India.

Iran and Pakistan have finalized a Gas Sales Purchase Agreement, based on which a periodic gas price adjustment will be agreed to by the two countries, but India has not agreed to price revision.

The United States seeks to stall an agreement on the project, also called the 'peace pipeline', to exert pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program.

The 2,775-kilometer gas pipeline will initially transfer 60 million cubic meters of natural gas per day from Iran to India and Pakistan, with capacity set to eventually increase to 150 million cubic meters per day.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just days after Murli Deora stated that TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) was not feasible. To think that Pakistan is also promoting some negotiation with Balochi tribal leaders by creating a sub-committee.

Tri-lateral meet on IPI gas by July 2008

New Delhi, Tue, 24 Jun 2008 NI Wire

A trilateral ministerial meeting between Iran, Pakistan and India is likely to be held in July this year for sorting out all the problems regarding Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, as per official source informed on Monday.

After concluding the oil meeting on Sunday, Indian Union Oil and Natural Gas Minister Murli Deora met his Iranian counterparts Gholam Hossein Nozari for resolving the obstacle in the way of IPI gas Pipeline project.

Indian oil minister informed Iranian minister about its interest in the multi-billion dollars gas pipeline project, besides notifying him in brief about the progress held in a bilateral meeting between India and Pakistan that was held earlier in April, 2008, in Islamabad.

India and Pakistan had solved the primary price differences and transit issues in a bilateral talk and a trilateral meeting is on the pipeline to sort out all differences before finalising the USD7.4 billion project.

“Most of the bilateral issues have been resolved and now a trilateral meeting of oil ministers of the three countries is most likely to take place in Tehran next month,” Petroleum Secretary MS Srinivasan informed on Monday.

Besides IPI project, India has also talked on several issues related to development of the hydrocarbons. The last trilateral meeting was held in June 2006, at New Delhi.

India, however, has accused Pakistan for making delay in this talk illustrating the reason: the frequently ministerial level changes in Pakistan. “Now, Pakistan Oil Minister has changed again”, said Srinivasan by adding, “We want to be sure that the new minister is in connect with what had been agreed on April 24 bilateral meet.”

India has problem with Iran on two major issues: price revision clause and gas sale agreement, which are expecting to be sorted out in this trilateral meeting.

‘Iran wants to deliver the gas for both the countries at the Iranian-Pakistan border while India wants the gas delivering point at Indo-Pakistan border. Pakistan has agreed on this point and assured India for its support,’ the Petroleum Secretary said.

While, on the price differences Iran is seeking to add a price revision clause in the Gas Sales Agreement, which India is opposing. “One can keep on discussing the clause for the next three year or five years and we do not need to be rigid on this point,” added Srinivasan.

The proposed IPI gas pipeline is an ambitious plan which will reduce the problem of natural gas deficiency and fuels both in India and Pakistan. Moreover, considering the increasing energy demands, it would be a huge boost to India, which produces only half of its natural gas needs. The work is expected to begin next year while the projected target of its completion is scheduled by 2012.

In the first phase, Iran would release the gas 60 million cubic metres daily, which would be distributed equally between India and Pakistan but later Iran would enhance the releasing limit up to 150 million cubic metres, as per the signed agreement.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Sochi olympics as Abkhazia´s economical trigger

Russia has opened lucrative contracts associated with the 2014 Sochi winter Olympics to contractors in Abkhazia. Abkhazia will be the main supplier of building materials for construction work in the run-up to the Sochi Olympic Games in 2014, de facto president of the breakaway region, Sergey Baghapsh recently said. Tenders for the construction of concrete factories have already been reported.

So after a CACI-analyst study of Georgia separatist regions. Sadly for its detractors, it seems that Russia has the money and the vision to attract again the former CIS belt into its manor. Stability and rule of law, however predictable, do pay.

Clashes in South-Osetia intensifies: death-toll reaches 29

According to South Ossetian forces, 29 servicemen were killed since the early August outburst of the conflict, numbers that are not confirmed by Tbilisi. Meanwhile the children evacuation from Tskhinvali reaches 540 and is supposed to halt at 1,000. Russia has called for the US participation in the down-toning of the conflict, given the silence from US State department.

Russia and Libya: tiptoeing to a Gas Cartel?

Since Thursday 31^st Libya and Russia are finalizing their cooperation: Libya as major gas and oil producer, Russia as the problem-free dream-investor. Taking into account agreements with Algeria, resources deals from Maghreb to Mashreq of former Soviet allies follow an interesting script: oil for debt-scrap & weapons.

Moscow cancelled the debt Libya had (up to $4.5 billion), “in exchange for multibillion dollar contracts for Russian companies" after Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. For the contents of the agreements I rely on Dr. Ariel Cohen findings, namely “$3.5 billion for the state monopoly Russian Railways (RZD) to build a 500 kilometer rail line in Libya between the cities of Sirte and Benghazi, (admittedly) [...]$2 billion to $4 billion Russian deal to sell the Libyans modern arms [...]12 of the latest Su-35 multirole fighters (or Su-30MK2 according to other reports); a dozen MiG-29 SMT fighters; S-300 PMU-2 long-range surface-to-air missiles, Tor-M2E short-range SAM systems, military helicopters, submarines, warships, and army equipment.”

Securing a partnership with EU suppliers of gas and oil will unfortunately mine any energy diversification policy Brussels may consider. Talks of a Gas cartel are re-iterated, and look now more likely: Russia has been benefitting from Algeria´s expertise in LNG technology since their agreements in 2006. Moreover the deal with Algeria and recent visit to Nigeria put Gazprom closer to have a stake on the NIGAL pipeline (a.k.a. Trans-Saharan gas pipeline) or finance it.

Tshkinvali shelling: Georgia lured into open confrontation?

After Abkhazia is cleared from the world opinion, South Ossetia is stumbling into uncontrolled conflict. After a Georgian civil water cut was matched by a South-Ossetian water slashing, troop re-deploying was observed by South-Ossetian border forces, in numbers of “an artillery battalion and two mortar batteries from the 4th motorized brigade of the Georgian Defense Ministry”, moving from the army base in Gori to Tskhinvali.

Sniper firing was reported to kill 6 South Ossetians in the regional capital Tskhinvali, and as of Saturday 2nd, South Ossetian prime minister Yury Morozov ordered women, children and old people from vulnerable areas to be evacated.

South Ossetian envoy to Russia, Mr Dmirty Medoyev, precised in early July help could come from North Ossetia. Hereafter an interview from Rossiya TV.

Lack of any economic interest would make one think this conflict is a mere proxy war that was staged by Russia in retaliation of Georgian participation in the BTC (Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan) pipeline, and duly used to steer the country towards Moscow again. Yet the conflict was frozen since the demise of the USSR, before pipeline dreams were afoot. The two regions just follow their petty interests as mainly dependent on Russian tourism and trade with the north, the lack of compelling business-talk from Tbilisi being a demonstration of the current dis-functional Georgian comundrum.

Moscow may think well to enhance the already flourishing economic relationship with Sukhumi. An economically booming independent Abkhazia (it is unclear to which shade) would supposedly lure Georgia to re-open business with Russia.

What is more interesting, Moscow is not openly demanding for any annexation, insisting that South Ossetians and Abkhazians are sovereign states fit to decide, impliciting that the current situation serves her at best. Certainly a North-South Ossetia unification will alter the uneasy ethnic balance with the Inghush people, another frozen conflict Chechen separatists tried to torch with the Beslan School Hostage crisis.

On the other side, the lingering as Break-away provinces can´t continue ad libitum.

Don´t TAP-IT, IP-IT: new perspectives to India after the July 25th agreement

Just as in the Woody Allen comedy “Take the money and run”, petty plans always pay. The scenario of securing Central Asia Gas to India has caved in after the penstrokes in Ashgabat decided the resources to be of Russian property and so all the drilling projects to be started. The TAPI pipeline project was being talked to connect the Gas fields in Turkmenistan to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan. I will try to make an argument: it wouldn´t be built at all.

Far from being unlikely due to the troubled areas it is passing through (Eastern Afghanistan and Kandahar: land mined and subject to Taliban treat ), it would simply be empty as the source has changed its mind. The agreement between Russia and Turkmenistan (possibly hinted by Turkmenistan when referring in late june to better buyers" ) makes it clear where the gas would be going: from Turkmenistan to China via Russia.

To India is a bad blow and the second frustrating loss of precious resources to its more savvy competitor since the Myanmar deal. It seems now that the only alternative brings in Iran with the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline.

It is a more sound agreement in terms of feasibility, a deal shorter and passing through more friendly territory geographically and anthropologically; the only problem here is represented by the Balucistani Liberation Army (BLA) and the fees that since the project conception (1990) keep fluctuating. Yet in June 29^th, after the Turkmen hype of the prices, a gas sale and purchase agreement (GSPA) was finalized in a 7.4 billion dollar deal.

With Caspian oil tapped away to US interests, the big development is either the acceptation of Russia stand in Central Asia (and its reliability) or the mildening of relationship with Tehran.

In either case, it would prove an interesting precedent for Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan and would just accelerate Turkey eastward lean.

Ascertaining the obvious, the sun rises from the East.