Don´t TAP-IT, IP-IT: new perspectives to India after the July 25th agreement

Just as in the Woody Allen comedy “Take the money and run”, petty plans always pay. The scenario of securing Central Asia Gas to India has caved in after the penstrokes in Ashgabat decided the resources to be of Russian property and so all the drilling projects to be started. The TAPI pipeline project was being talked to connect the Gas fields in Turkmenistan to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan. I will try to make an argument: it wouldn´t be built at all.

Far from being unlikely due to the troubled areas it is passing through (Eastern Afghanistan and Kandahar: land mined and subject to Taliban treat ), it would simply be empty as the source has changed its mind. The agreement between Russia and Turkmenistan (possibly hinted by Turkmenistan when referring in late june to better buyers" ) makes it clear where the gas would be going: from Turkmenistan to China via Russia.

To India is a bad blow and the second frustrating loss of precious resources to its more savvy competitor since the Myanmar deal. It seems now that the only alternative brings in Iran with the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline.

It is a more sound agreement in terms of feasibility, a deal shorter and passing through more friendly territory geographically and anthropologically; the only problem here is represented by the Balucistani Liberation Army (BLA) and the fees that since the project conception (1990) keep fluctuating. Yet in June 29^th, after the Turkmen hype of the prices, a gas sale and purchase agreement (GSPA) was finalized in a 7.4 billion dollar deal.

With Caspian oil tapped away to US interests, the big development is either the acceptation of Russia stand in Central Asia (and its reliability) or the mildening of relationship with Tehran.

In either case, it would prove an interesting precedent for Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan and would just accelerate Turkey eastward lean.

Ascertaining the obvious, the sun rises from the East.