South Stream Vs Nabucco: the Turkmeni affair

Within the turn of the week, the thorny issue of Caspian gas to EU has also dramatically changed. In short, Nabucco is down and South Stream is up.

Bulgaria has given the ratification of the South Stream (that comes after the Greece, Serbia and Austria ) pipeline, which is expected to run with Azerbaijani gas. Meanwhile Turkemistan is granting its gas to Gazprom , undermining the Nabucco project. As the article points clearly, there is now insufficient gas to have Nabucco project feasible and meaningful, unless it is considered the “Hobson choice”: Iranian gas. Turkey, pushing for Nabucco as South Stream bypass Turkey via Black sea, is already lobbying Tehran to double the existing Iran.-Turkey pipeline.

It is still unclear whether it would be iranian or (again) turkmeni gas to be pumped in the pipes, and the memory of January 2008 shortages due to Theran- Ashgabat strife and occasional pipeline blowups are always reason for concern.

In any case Registan.net makes a good argument why South Stream would be more viable and more likely to occur. Not only it is shorter and economically more sound, but it cuts short of problematic areas with separatism problem (Georgia, Turkey), bypassing the crowded Bosphorus.