Of Sudanese shrugs and Chinese concerns

ICC has formally indicted Sudanese President Hassan Al-Bashir.

Interestingly, after the dust deposited, the editorialists and commentators are starting to point at the most patent precedent of what is occurring in Sudan: the Iraqi case; i.e. government of a divided state commits (among the other claims) abuses on ethnic minority and faces Western criticism, then bold diplomatic speaking, then war and invasion. The country is then ultimately ungovernable, and a hot-spot for international anti-US revenge.

As the collapse of the Baath party in Iraq shows, Governance and Statehood are subject to thermodynamic law and ignore creation ex-nihilo. By beheading or severely de-legitimating a Government the only output is Political Commotion hence anarchy, where the anti-state and war-lord economies strive. I am not saying that all this would happen, simply detecting a trend.

At this moment, we are at the very beginning of the procedure: discrediting the government. It may as may not yield a regime–change, but surely there are other ways to intimidate the Autocracy. As already reported in this blog, Sudan was already asked by ICC to hand a minister also impeached in the Darfour civil war and connected to the Janjaweed militia.

If ever ICC factual commitment were to follow to the accusations, the case would end with a Sudanese dismissal of indictment and a n Autocracy-clampdown (with Federalism in Southern Sudan back to square one), to the great distress of the Horn of Africa uneasy situation.

Most likely, Sudan would then turn to China, as protector and reliable and problem-free economic Partner, which brings me to another point: the UN overall Africa Policy Vs the Laissez-faire China Africa Policy. Africa autocracies, much like their Central Asian (and South-East Asian one might say) counterparts, are enthusiastically ignoring their colonial-style abuses on their own citizens (who happen not to be of a ruling ethnicity) in exchange of wealth and prestige. As the “one family, one party, one leader” african mantra goes, the “Celestial” Presidency seat distributes goods that are accessible to it alone, its deeds are good and just, every protest or complaint is a threat to harmony. As worded, it seems darn Asiatic rather than African, and it may as well echo the Cargo Cults as the wealth stems from Foreign Assistance and the soil rather than from any national capability.

Sadly this is perforce happening in oil-rich lands, and given the Oil-Peak theories resurfacing it will set the Century policies for these states. Perhaps the only solution durable is promoting diversification policies in those lands, as EU is successfully doing with Russia (albeit the outputs are not immediate). Economy differentiation means power differentiation and ties neighbour economies one another. Transforms a drilled and derrick-dotted surface into a State among States.